Real gross domestic product is likely to have increased again slightly in the first quarter of 2024, according to the April Monthly Report. The somewhat higher level of industrial output and a rise in goods exports are supporting the German economy. Overall, they conclude, there is still no sign of a sustained improvement for the German economy.

Contrary to expectations, German economic output fell slightly in the second quarter of 2024, the Bundesbank writes in its latest Monthly Report. Real gross domestic product (GDP) recorded a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Despite stabilising demand, industrial output resumed its downward trend in the second quarter. In the first quarter, it had experienced a brief recovery.

Economic output in Germany increased again somewhat of late according to the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report. Benefiting from favourable weather conditions, construction in particular picked up again recently. “Industrial output and exports [also] performed better than had been expected based on the weak demand,” the economists write. However, private consumption remained sluggish in the first quarter. Consumers were unsettled despite the stable labour market and real income growth. Inflation eased only marginally and stood at 2.7% in the first quarter.

The People’s Republic of China currently has severe economic problems to contend with. On top of that, relations between advanced economies in the West and China have worsened noticeably of late. These developments also present considerable risks for Germany. “If these risks materialise, Germany’s economy could take a huge hit,” the Bundesbank writes in an article in its January Monthly Report. The article explores Germany’s dependence on China, and is the first to also focus on potential risks to the financial system. 

Beim Neujahrsempfang der Ehemaligenvereinigung der Hochschule der Bundesbank sprach die Wirtschaftsweise Veronika Grimm über aktuelle außenwirtschaftliche Probleme und mögliche Lösungsansätze.

The German economy made a weak start to the third quarter following fairly robust growth in the spring. According to the Bundesbank’s latest Monthly Report, this was mainly due to a substantial fall in production by car manufacturers. However, the Monthly Report points out that the German economic upswing is essentially intact.

Despite the massive shock triggered by the coronavirus pandemic and what were, at times, very stringent containment measures, the number of corporate insolvencies dropped substantially in 2020, the Bundesbank writes in its Monthly Report. This was due in part to the temporary suspension of the obligation to file for insolvency, which is subject to certain conditions. German enterprises’ sales fell far less significantly than they had done during the financial and economic crisis of 2009, the Bank’s economists explain.

Scientific study on the expectations of firms in Germany