In spite of many burdens, the German economy grew more strongly than expected at the beginning of 2026 – partly because industry proved to be quite resilient. However, the labour market continued to deteriorate and the consequences of the war in Iran are clouding the outlook for the German economy in the second quarter.

The Counterfeit Money Unit's task is to examine and store counterfeit money of any currency which is seized in Germany or confiscated by the police. We also check the authenticity of payment cards, securities, traveller's cheques and gold and silver coins which are legal tender. Another focal point of our work is to prevent the circulation of counterfeit money.

Anna sucht relevante Technologietrends für die Bundesbank und zeigt auf, wie sie genutzt werden könnte. Was sie antreibt und welche Rahmenbedingungen sie dabei unterstützen berichtet sie hier.

The weekly activity index (WAI) is an index designed to measure real economic activity in Germany in a timely manner. The index is based on daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly indicators for the German economy.

Firms’ short-term inflation expectations rose over the course of the first quarter of 2026, from 2.7 % in January to 3.2 % in March. The median also increased during this period, standing at 2.8 % in March 2026 (January: 2.5 %).

In addition to the regularly recurring questions on enterprise metrics, expectations and access to loans, the Bundesbank frequently asks enterprises questions on various current issues. A selection of the results is presented here.

In Q1 2026, 18 % of firms expected a decline in their need for credit financing over the next 12 months, 3 percentage points more than in Q4 2025. The share of firms expecting an increase remained unchanged at 29 % compared with Q4 2025. In terms of short-term liquidity, 30 % of firms expected a decline, 1 percentage point more than in Q4 2025. The share of firms expecting their liquidity to increase was 17 %, 1 percentage point higher than in the previous quarter.

In Q1 2026, the share of firms with reduced credit financing needs over the past 12 months was 21 %, 3 percentage points higher than in Q4 2025. At the same time, the share of firms with lower liquidity fell by 2 percentage points to 33 % compared with Q4 2025. In Q1 2026, more firms reported a decline in their short-term liquidity over the past 12 months than an increase, as before. The remaining metrics remained broadly stable compared with Q4 2025.

Among the problematic developments for firms over the first quarter of 2026, high energy prices recorded the strongest growth, with 61% of firms seeing them as a pressing problem over the next six months in March (December 2025: 43%). In absolute terms, “regulation and government regulations” remain the biggest short-term challenge for firms, with an unchanged 69% in March 2026 reporting that bureaucracy would be a pressing problem over the next six months compared with December 2025.

In the first quarter of 2026, a virtually unchanged share of firms as against the previous quarter reported that they had conducted loan negotiations in the respective quarter prior to the survey period (Q1 2026: 14.7 %, compared with Q4 2025: 14.6 %).