Research Brief
This publication by the Bundesbank Research Centre provides regular news about recent studies and discussion papers by Bundesbank research economists.
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Two stress tests examine the resilience of German banks to a drop in real estate prices Research Brief | 19th edition – June 2018
29.06.2018 DE
German credit institutions are sufficiently capitalised to deal with potential losses from their residential mortgage exposures that could arise if house prices, which have been rising strongly since 2010, were to fall sharply. This is shown by the results of two current stress tests that have been developed by Bundesbank experts for risk analyses.
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The trouble with predictions Research Brief | 18th edition – April 2018
25.04.2018 DE
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Those familiar words are no less true in the world of economic forecasting. A new study considers how far into the future it makes sense to forecast.
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From an individual-bank view to a system-wide view on capital requirements under crisis scenarios Research Brief | 17th edition – February 2018
21.02.2018 DE
How much capital is needed both at the individual bank level and for the system as a whole especially in situations of macroeconomic stress? And is the capital in the system distributed across individual banks in the optimal way to cover potential systemic losses? A new study gives answers to these questions in an integrated supervisory framework.
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Increased investment abroad boosts domestic investment Research Brief | 16th edition – November 2017
22.11.2017 DE
True to the maxim that a euro can only ever be spent once, it is often thought that foreign direct investment by German firms means that those firms reduce their investment in Germany. A new study examines this hypothesis, exploring the relationship between domestic and foreign investment.
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How disagreement in inflation expectations can influence the transmission of monetary policy Research Brief | 15th edition – September 2017
29.09.2017 DE
Does a less expansionary monetary policy, for example, an increase in interest rates, lead to lower inflation and dampened inflation expectations? Many empirical and theoretical studies suggest that it does. A new study, however, shows that, if inflation expectations diverge widely, a less expansionary monetary policy can lead to increased inflation and higher inflation expectations.
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How firm productivity impacts on the optimal inflation rate Research Brief | 14th edition – August 2017
31.08.2017 DE
The productivity of many firms evolves over time. This impacts on the optimal inflation rate – the rate of price increase with the least distortionary effect on relative goods prices. Our estimates for the United States suggest that, due to firm-level productivity changes, the optimal inflation rate has dropped from somewhat over 2% in the mid-1980s to a current level of roughly 1%.
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Is the single monetary policy producing different effects across euro-area countries? Research Brief | 13th edition – June 2017
29.06.2017 DE
The Eurosystem’s monetary policy is geared towards macroeconomic developments over the entire euro area. Does it produce different effects in the individual member states? And, if yes, how big are the differences? Our empirical study on interest rate policy examines this question for Germany, France, Italy and Spain, the four largest economies in the euro area.
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Saving patterns in the low-interest-rate setting – results of the 2016 PHF summer survey Research Brief | 12th edition – April 2017
19.04.2017 DE
Households in Germany are expecting interest rates to stay low over the relatively long haul, with many intending to adjust their saving behaviour in response. These are two of the key findings from the 2016 Panel on Household Finances (PHF) summer survey.
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Monetary policy effectiveness in times of financial market volatility Research Brief | 11th edition – March 2017
29.03.2017 DE
The years following the 2007-08 financial crisis saw central banks in the United States and other industrialized countries adopt highly expansionary monetary policy measures in an effort to stimulate the economy. But how effective have those policies been? A new study explores how effective an expansionary monetary policy stance can be in such turbulent times.
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Short selling below the radar Research Brief | 10th edition – February 2017
28.02.2017 DE
A new EU regulation sheds the first light on the hitherto hidden practices of short sellers. This legislation requires short positions to be made public as soon as they exceed a certain threshold. How are market participants responding to this new transparency? A new study looks into this question.