Energy prices skyrocketed as a result of the Russian war of aggression. Government stabilization measures such as the gas price brake were intended to support overall economic development. Our study compares the effects of two fiscal stabilization measures for companies: subsidies in the form of quantity-limited price guarantees and production-independent direct transfers. It turns out that the effectiveness of the measures depends on the availability of the good.

This article studies the impact of a digital euro on financial stability. Our survey findings indicate that German households are open to the digital euro – suggesting they perceive that there are benefits to accessing a central bank digital currency. However, demand for the digital euro raises concerns about strong outflows of deposits from the banking sector, with potential implications for financial stability. We study this issue in a new macroeconomic model and conclude that the digital euro – if complemented with an appropriate holding limit, i.e. the maximum digital euro amount that an individual is permitted to hold – can actually strengthen financial stability and improve welfare.

The digital transformation creates scope to make workflows and production processes more efficient. To quantify the impact of digital transformation on labour productivity, research often focuses on investments in digital technologies. This perspective neglects the fact that digital intermediate inputs, such as microchips or integrated software, also represent an important transmission channel for the efficiency gains from digitalisation. In a new study, Bundesbank researchers have examined how efficiency gains in the digital sectors have affected labour productivity in Germany, France and the United States.

Flexible working time arrangements can help parents reconcile family and work commitments. In this context, a new study examines the impact of the statutory right to work part-time on the labour supply and labour income of eligible mothers.

Forecasting current month inflation (“nowcasting”) is a highly important exercise for central banks and market participants, especially in turbulent times. In a new study, researchers investigate how millions of granular weekly scanner data from households combined with machine learning (ML) techniques can improve the nowcast of monthly German inflation.

A new research paper shows that German households increase their inflation expectations following increases in their energy prices. This effect is, however, absent for high-income and well-informed households as well as for firms. Higher inflation expectations can influence saving and consumption decisions and thus aggregate demand.

Banks with substantial central bank reserves are earning income from their reserve holdings in the European Central Bank’s (ECB) recent rate hiking cycle. This could make their credit supply less sensitive to the monetary policy tightening compared to other banks. This hypothesis is examined in a new study (Fricke, Greppmair, Paludkiewicz, 2023) using the new AnaCredit dataset – a credit register harmonised across the euro area.

Some households contribute only a small amount of equity when buying property financed by a loan. If they then default on the loan, lenders may incur losses. Should the problem affect a large number of lenders, this could potentially jeopardise financial stability. Minimum requirements for the own funds households need to provide can limit losses that may arise. However, this would mean that some households can no longer obtain loans in the desired amount. A Bundesbank study shows that a large proportion of the households interested in buying which would be affected by this are then willing to buy a cheaper property or to save more in order to buy at a later date. The impact on homeownership is therefore likely to be smaller in the medium than in the short term.

Internal risk models play an important role in ensuring capital adequacy at banks. Banking supervisors keep a particularly close eye on them, as banks have some degrees of freedom when it comes to model design. A new study examines the incentives for banks to implement internal risk models, analyses their impact on risk management and explains possible consequences of a new regulatory proposal regarding application of such models.

The trade dispute between the United States and China in 2018 and 2019 increased trade policy uncertainty, leading to a marked appreciation of the US dollar (USD). The obvious explanation for this is the special role played by USD investments in the global financial system as a safe haven for investors in times of high uncertainty. The USD appreciation triggered in this way in 2018 and 2019 enabled Chinese exporters to lower their prices in US dollars. As a result, the impact of the additional import tariffs imposed at the time by the United States on Chinese products was significantly reduced.