Following significant GDP growth in the previous quarter, the German economy is likely to stagnate in the first quarter of 2026 in seasonally adjusted terms, according to the March issue of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report. Industry’s weak competitive position, continued low capacity utilisation and a lag in the impact of government stimuli are dampening developments. The Middle East conflict is a source of additional burdens, especially as a result of rising energy prices, and these factors are keeping the inflation outlook particularly uncertain at present.

The nominal effective exchange rates of the euro condense bilateral exchange rates against multiple countries into a single index. As an aggregate, they capture changes in euro exchange rates against various groups of currencies of key trading partners.

German banks tightened their credit standards for loans to enterprises in the fourth quarter of 2025 to an extent not seen since 2023. This is revealed by the Bundesbank's most recent round of the Bank Lending Survey. The banks pointed to the renewed rise in credit risk as the reason for this tightening.

The same methodology as the real effective exchange rates of the euro is used to calculate price competitiveness indicators for individual euro area countries. 

The German current account recorded a surplus of €20.0 billion in February 2026. This was €3.9 billion up on the previous month’s level. 

In spite of ongoing strains and additional headwinds as a result of the war in the Middle East, real gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to have increased slightly in the first quarter of 2026 after seasonal adjustment, says the Bundesbank in its April Monthly Report. Nonetheless, industry is suffering from structural barriers to growth, which are undermining its competitive position. Furthermore, the significant rise in fuel prices in March has weighed heavily on households’ purchasing power. The Bundesbank’s experts anticipate that inflation will remain significantly elevated over the coming months as well.