A new weekly activity index (WAI) for the German economy has been developed at the Bundesbank to assess the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the economy from a near-time perspective. The Bundesbank is using this new indicator as an input in its short-term economic analysis.

Persistently low interest rates had various effects on financial investment in Germany in 2019. According to the Bundesbank’s latest Monthly Report, while households generally preferred low-risk and liquid forms of investment, a certain degree of searching for yield was evident among financial corporations.

“German economic output underwent a massive decline in the first quarter of 2020 owing to the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures taken to contain it,” the Bundesbank notes in the current issue of the Monthly Report. Since these measures were still in place in April and substantial restrictions are likely to persist in spite of an easing in some cases, the experts expect economic output in the second quarter to be significantly lower still.

According to preliminary calculations by the German Federal Statistical Office, German economic output fell by 2.2% in the first quarter of 2020. “This was the largest decline since the global financial and economic crisis in 2008/09 and the second-largest decline since German unification,” the experts in Berlin said.

The exchange rate statistics represent a collection of current and historical exchange rates for the euro and the US dollar in 192 countries. The Bundesbank provides additional data on topics such as exchange rate arrangements and monetary history for all of these countries.

According to Bundesbank Executive Board member Joachim Wuermeling, the situation is stable. “The current crisis shows that we, as supervisors, have learned the right lessons from the last crisis. Many of the measures, which, in some cases, came under sharp criticism, are now proving to be worth their weight in gold,” according to Mr Wuermeling.

Banking supervisors are reviewing their supervisory practices and measures in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Both the EBA stress test and the LSI stress test have been postponed, for example. More information can be found on the websites of the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin), the ECB, the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS).

“The coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it have plunged the German economy into a severe recession,” according to the Bundesbank’s latest Monthly Report. At present, it is all but impossible to tell with any degree of certainty how large the decline in overall economic activity will eventually be, the Monthly Report states

Der Rat der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) hat beschlossen, den Zeitrahmen für die Überprüfung der geldpolitischen Strategie auszuweiten. Der Termin für den Abschluss der Strategieüberprüfung wird daher von Ende 2020 auf Mitte 2021 verschoben.