“Economic output in Germany is likely to have increased slightly in the first quarter of 2025, but could suffer a setback in the second quarter,” the Bundesbank writes in its latest Monthly Report. Construction and industrial output, for instance, were up recently. Retail sales also continued to grow in January and February. However, according to the Bundesbank’s economists, the outlook for the second quarter is gloomy, not least given the US administration’s tariff policy.

Monthly turnover data are available for industry and the retail trade sector. Quarterly time series are published for the services sector. The results for the retail trade are also included in the calculation of private consumption.

In addition to the regularly recurring questions on enterprise metrics, expectations and access to loans, the Bundesbank frequently asks enterprises questions on various current issues. A selection of the results is presented here.

In 2024, the Bundesbank registered approximately 72,400 counterfeit euro banknotes with a nominal value of €4.5 million in German payments. The number of counterfeits was thus up by 28% on the year. 

Die Konjunktur- und Preisentwicklung in Deutschland und in anderen Ländern wird in verschiedenen Statistiken abgebildet.

Cash remains the most frequently used means of payment at the point of sale in Germany. This is one of the findings of the Bundesbank’s latest study on payment behaviour in Germany for 2023. However, card and mobile payments are gaining significant ground, while the share of cash payments is declining. Although this decline is no longer as pronounced as during the coronavirus pandemic, the share of cash payments is falling faster than in previous years,” said Executive Board member Burkhard Balz.

Auf Initiative der Deutschen Bundesbank wurde im Februar dieses Jahres das Nationale Bargeldforum gegründet. Das Forum bringt alle relevanten Akteure des Bargeldkreislaufs an einen Tisch und erarbeitet gemeinsam Lösungsideen zu aktuellen Bargeldfragen. Bundesbankvorstand Burkhard Balz stellt die Arbeit und die Ziele des Forums näher vor.

Laut der Umfrage zum Kreditgeschäft im Euroraum vom Januar 2025 wurden die Kreditrichtlinien (d. h. die bankinternen Richtlinien oder Kriterien für die Kreditgewährung) für Unternehmenskredite (inklusive Kreditlinien) im vierten Quartal 2024 erneut verschärft; per saldo meldeten 7 % der Banken eine Verschärfung. 

In the period from January to June 2024, the Bundesbank removed significantly more counterfeit money from circulation in Germany than in the six months prior, detecting around 38,600 counterfeit euro banknotes with a nominal value of €2.4 million. This was 29% more than in the second half of 2023. Meanwhile, the total loss arising from counterfeit banknotes was only slightly up, by just under 5%. The increase was driven by easily identifiable counterfeits, especially of €10 and €20 banknotes, said Burkhard Balz, the Bundesbank’s Executive Board member whose remit includes cash management.

German economic output rose unexpectedly in the third quarter of 2024, according to the Monthly Report. However, none of the key demand components currently give any cause to expect a marked recovery in the short term. “The industrial sector is faced with a difficult environment and is under high pressure to adapt,” the economists write. In addition, the labour market is becoming increasingly gloomy owing to the protracted bout of economic weakness.

A lack of data is making it very difficult to estimate probabilities of default. Experts from 13 countries discussed different approaches, from the factoring in of certain variables to the development of algorithms. Only time will tell which of these will win out in practice.

Anyone wishing to conduct one or more of the banking activities specified in the Banking Act on a commercial scale in Germany requires authorisation from the competent supervisory authority.

Data of charts (from Q3 2022)

In Deutschland bezahlen Kundinnen und Kunden im Einzelhandel am schnellsten mit dem Smartphone oder der Smartwatch. Eine Zahlung dauert damit durchschnittlich 14 Sekunden. Dies geht aus einer aktuellen Erhebung der Deutschen Bundesbank zur Bezahlgeschwindigkeit verschiedener Zahlungsmittel hervor.

In 2023, the Bundesbank registered more counterfeit money in Germany than in the previous year. In total, there were around 56,600 counterfeit euro banknotes with a nominal value of €5.1 million. “The increase in counterfeit figures was driven by a handful of major cases of fraud, predominantly involving counterfeit €200 and €500 banknotes,” stated Bundesbank Executive Board member Burkhard Balz. Overall, the incidence of counterfeiting is still low and the risk to members of the public remains small, he said.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to have contracted somewhat in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest Monthly Report. Weak foreign demand and higher financing costs weighed on the German economy. Tailwinds came from the still robust labour market and steep wage increases amidst subsiding inflation, the economists report.

In the first half of 2023, the Bundesbank withdrew approximately 26,700 counterfeit euro banknotes with a nominal value of just under €2.9 million from circulation in Germany. This was 10% more counterfeit banknotes than in the second half of 2022. The number of counterfeit €200 and €500 banknotes rose in particular. “The incidence of counterfeit banknotes is still low, however. Statistically speaking, there were six counterfeit banknotes per 10,000 inhabitants,” stated Burkhard Balz, the Bundesbank Executive Board member responsible for cash management.