“Economic output in Germany is likely to have increased slightly in the first quarter of 2025, but could suffer a setback in the second quarter,” the Bundesbank writes in its latest Monthly Report. Construction and industrial output, for instance, were up recently. Retail sales also continued to grow in January and February. However, according to the Bundesbank’s economists, the outlook for the second quarter is gloomy, not least given the US administration’s tariff policy.

Monthly turnover data are available for industry and the retail trade sector. Quarterly time series are published for the services sector. The results for the retail trade are also included in the calculation of private consumption.

In addition to the regularly recurring questions on enterprise metrics, expectations and access to loans, the Bundesbank frequently asks enterprises questions on various current issues. A selection of the results is presented here.

In 2024, the Bundesbank registered approximately 72,400 counterfeit euro banknotes with a nominal value of €4.5 million in German payments. The number of counterfeits was thus up by 28% on the year. 

Die Konjunktur- und Preisentwicklung in Deutschland und in anderen Ländern wird in verschiedenen Statistiken abgebildet.

Cash remains the most frequently used means of payment at the point of sale in Germany. This is one of the findings of the Bundesbank’s latest study on payment behaviour in Germany for 2023. However, card and mobile payments are gaining significant ground, while the share of cash payments is declining. Although this decline is no longer as pronounced as during the coronavirus pandemic, the share of cash payments is falling faster than in previous years,” said Executive Board member Burkhard Balz.

Auf Initiative der Deutschen Bundesbank wurde im Februar dieses Jahres das Nationale Bargeldforum gegründet. Das Forum bringt alle relevanten Akteure des Bargeldkreislaufs an einen Tisch und erarbeitet gemeinsam Lösungsideen zu aktuellen Bargeldfragen. Bundesbankvorstand Burkhard Balz stellt die Arbeit und die Ziele des Forums näher vor.

Laut der Umfrage zum Kreditgeschäft im Euroraum vom Januar 2025 wurden die Kreditrichtlinien (d. h. die bankinternen Richtlinien oder Kriterien für die Kreditgewährung) für Unternehmenskredite (inklusive Kreditlinien) im vierten Quartal 2024 erneut verschärft; per saldo meldeten 7 % der Banken eine Verschärfung. 

In the period from January to June 2024, the Bundesbank removed significantly more counterfeit money from circulation in Germany than in the six months prior, detecting around 38,600 counterfeit euro banknotes with a nominal value of €2.4 million. This was 29% more than in the second half of 2023. Meanwhile, the total loss arising from counterfeit banknotes was only slightly up, by just under 5%. The increase was driven by easily identifiable counterfeits, especially of €10 and €20 banknotes, said Burkhard Balz, the Bundesbank’s Executive Board member whose remit includes cash management.

German economic output rose unexpectedly in the third quarter of 2024, according to the Monthly Report. However, none of the key demand components currently give any cause to expect a marked recovery in the short term. “The industrial sector is faced with a difficult environment and is under high pressure to adapt,” the economists write. In addition, the labour market is becoming increasingly gloomy owing to the protracted bout of economic weakness.

A lack of data is making it very difficult to estimate probabilities of default. Experts from 13 countries discussed different approaches, from the factoring in of certain variables to the development of algorithms. Only time will tell which of these will win out in practice.

Anyone wishing to conduct one or more of the banking activities specified in the Banking Act on a commercial scale in Germany requires authorisation from the competent supervisory authority.

Data of charts (from Q3 2022)

In Deutschland bezahlen Kundinnen und Kunden im Einzelhandel am schnellsten mit dem Smartphone oder der Smartwatch. Eine Zahlung dauert damit durchschnittlich 14 Sekunden. Dies geht aus einer aktuellen Erhebung der Deutschen Bundesbank zur Bezahlgeschwindigkeit verschiedener Zahlungsmittel hervor.

In 2023, the Bundesbank registered more counterfeit money in Germany than in the previous year. In total, there were around 56,600 counterfeit euro banknotes with a nominal value of €5.1 million. “The increase in counterfeit figures was driven by a handful of major cases of fraud, predominantly involving counterfeit €200 and €500 banknotes,” stated Bundesbank Executive Board member Burkhard Balz. Overall, the incidence of counterfeiting is still low and the risk to members of the public remains small, he said.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to have contracted somewhat in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest Monthly Report. Weak foreign demand and higher financing costs weighed on the German economy. Tailwinds came from the still robust labour market and steep wage increases amidst subsiding inflation, the economists report.

In the first half of 2023, the Bundesbank withdrew approximately 26,700 counterfeit euro banknotes with a nominal value of just under €2.9 million from circulation in Germany. This was 10% more counterfeit banknotes than in the second half of 2022. The number of counterfeit €200 and €500 banknotes rose in particular. “The incidence of counterfeit banknotes is still low, however. Statistically speaking, there were six counterfeit banknotes per 10,000 inhabitants,” stated Burkhard Balz, the Bundesbank Executive Board member responsible for cash management.

Die EZB erarbeitet hohe Datenschutzstandards, um digitale Online- und Offline-Zahlungen so weit wie möglich mit Bargeldtransaktionen vergleichbar zu machen. Sie hat mit der Entwicklung einer Methodik zur Kalibrierung der Obergrenzen für das Halten des digitalen Euro begonnen.

Real gross domestic product will probably decline again slightly in the first quarter of 2024, according to the March Monthly Report. The economy continues to experience headwinds from various directions. Domestic and foreign demand for German industrial products went down further. In addition, higher financing costs dampened domestic demand. Moreover, the available survey indicators still provide little evidence of an economic recovery for the coming quarter. 

The costs of payment methods for consumers are difficult to determine, not recorded in a harmonised manner on an international level and consequently vary significantly from country to country. For this reason, a separate study is necessary for Germany. As part of a representative survey conducted in 2023, households were asked about the costs they incurred when using various means of payment. 

Cash is a quick and cheap means of payment in the German retail trade sector. On average, cash payments take just over 22 seconds and cost around 24 cent per transaction, according to a study on the costs of cash payments in the retail trade sector which the Deutsche Bundesbank carried out in cooperation with EHI Retail Institute.

Bargeld ist in Deutschland nach wie vor das meistgenutzte Zahlungsmittel, auch wenn die Digitalisierung im Zahlungsverkehr voranschreitet. Dieses Video bietet einen Einblick in unsere Geldbearbeitung.

Die Bundesbank begrüßt es, dass Kundinnen und Kunden sich zunehmend auch im Einzelhandel an der Kasse mit Bargeld versorgen können. In einem Gastbeitrag für das Magazin "Der Handel" weist Bundesbank-Vorstandsmitglied Johannes Beermann allerdings darauf hin, dass alle Bargeldakteure dazu verpflichtet seien, Banknoten auf Echtheit zu prüfen und Fälschungen zu erkennen. Die Bundesbank bietet hierfür entsprechende Schulungen an.

Cash is quicker and cheaper at the point of sale than other means of payment, a recent study has found. It performed better than other payment types for transactions of up to €50 in particular. According to the study, three out of four payments are settled in cash.

The German economy is set to recover only arduously from the period of weakness that has persisted since the outbreak of Russia’s war against Ukraine, write the Bundesbank’s experts in the Monthly Report. The industrial sector is still up against difficult conditions, and households’ mood for spending remained subdued in the third quarter. The experts do not expect economic output to see slight growth again until the first quarter of 2024.

Since 2008, the Deutsche Bundesbank has been taking a comprehensive look at how the population pays, what attitudes they have towards cash and electronic means of payment, and what developments can be expected in payment transactions.

Immobilienfinanzierung ist für die Bundesbank aus ganz verschiedenen Blickwinkeln ein wichtiges Thema: Zum einen für volkswirtschaftliche Analysen, da Immobilien eine große Bedeutung für die Vermögensbestände privater Haushalte haben.

Economic activity in Germany may have more or less stagnated in the first quarter of 2022, the Bundesbank’s economists write in the current issue of the Monthly Report. They expect Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine to have had only a limited impact on Germany’s economy at first. Even so, the repercussions of the war are likely to significantly weaken the recovery, which had actually got off to a strong start. “Disruptions to foreign trade and supply chains, soaring energy prices and heightened uncertainty are weighing on enterprises and households,” the report states.

The German economy is still experiencing a period of weakness. According to the Federal Statistical Office’s flash estimate, in the second quarter of 2023, seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product (GDP) stagnated at the level recorded in the previous quarter. The current issue of the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report reports that weak foreign demand and higher financing costs are weighing on the economy. The large backlog of orders in industry and construction and abating supply bottlenecks prevented an even weaker development. The sound labour market acted as a tailwind for the economy. 

Stabilität im Wandel? Christina Frenzel führt eine Arbeitseinheit in der IT in Zeiten der Veränderung und schätzt dennoch die Stabilität, die ihr der Arbeitgeber Bundesbank bietet.

German economic output is likely to have gone up slightly again in the second quarter of 2023, according to the Monthly Report. Private consumption has stabilised after previously having fallen. According to the experts, the fact that the labour market remained in good shape, wages rose sharply and price inflation did not continue to accelerate contributed to this development. Meanwhile, the decline in foreign demand was a drag on industry and the rise in funding costs dampened domestic investment. The Bundesbank is expecting the economy to recover haltingly later in the year.

Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hat heute ihren Bericht über Kartenbetrug veröffentlicht, der auf Informationen von 20 Kartenzahlungssystemen beruht. Im Jahr 2021 war der Kartenbetrug weiter rückläufig und erreichte den niedrigsten Stand seit Beginn der Datenerhebung. Gemessen am Gesamtwert der Kartenzahlungen, die mit im Euro-Zahlungsverkehrsraum (SEPA) ausgegebenen Karten getätigt wurden, belief sich der Anteil betrügerischer Kartentransaktionen auf 0,028 %.

The economic recovery in Germany was brought to a standstill in the final quarter of 2020, the Bundesbank writes in its latest Monthly Report, stating that this was due to resurgent infection rates and the tightening of containment measures. Economic activity was consequently still almost 4% down on the pre-crisis level of the fourth quarter of 2019.

“The German economy beat last month’s expectations in the first quarter of 2023,” according to the Bundesbank’s latest Monthly Report. While persistently high inflation weighed on private consumption, industry saw a stronger recovery than expected. The Bundesbank is anticipating positive employment developments and a slight decline in the inflation rate in the coming months.

Viele Deutsche verfügen über größere Bargeldvorräte. Das hat einen guten Grund.