The Bundesbank presents its 2022 Financial Stability Review Current Focus
13 January 2023
The macro-financial environment has deteriorated substantially over the course of 2022. It has been shaped by subdued growth prospects and high inflation alongside rising interest rates and risk premia. Banks, insurers and investment funds have already recorded losses as a result of market corrections. The greatly increased and extremely volatile stock market prices for energy products have led to a sharp increase in the collateral requirements of central counterparties in derivatives trading. That said, government measures have been able to cushion liquidity shortages at enterprises in the energy sector and the supply of credit to the economy has ultimately worked well to date.
Resilience is required in the face of remaining major downside risks. A worsening energy crisis, a steep economic slump and an abrupt rise in market interest rates could put the German financial system under considerable pressure. Rising costs are limiting the financial leeway of households and enterprises. Future credit risks are increasing as a result.
Vulnerabilities in the stock of loans have built up in the German financial system over a period of several years, thanks in part to low interest rates and strong growth in loans and asset prices. Insolvencies in the corporate sector and thus credit risk have declined in recent years. Banks still consider their credit risk to be fairly low, but many of the assumptions made in the past when granting loans may well have been overly optimistic.
The Financial Stability Review highlights the need for sufficient resilience in the financial system in view of existing macro-financial risks.
- The macro-financial environment and the situation in the real sector
- Vulnerabilities and resilience in the German financial system
- Overall assessment and implications for macroprudential policy
- Commercial real estate and the German financial system
- Current issues putting central clearing to the test
Anyone interested in the Bundesbank’s Financial Stability Review.
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