Workshop on Forecasting

Session 1

  • The global component of inflation volatility
    Andrea Carriero, Francesco Corsello, Massimiliano Marcellino
  • Composite likelihood methods for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility
    Joshua Chan, Eric Eisenstat, Chenghan Hou, Gary Koop

Session 2

  • Forecasting with many predictors using message passing
    Dimitris Korobilis
  • Big data analytics in economics: What have we learned so far, and where should we go from here?
    Norman Swanson, Weiqi Xiong

Poster Session 1

  • Order invariant tests for proper calibration of multivariate density forecasts
    Jonas Dovern, Hans Manner
  • Uncertainty through the lenses of a mixed-frequency Bayesian panel Markov switching model
    Roberto Casarin, Claudia Foroni, Massimiliano Marcellino, Francesco Ravazzolo
  • Large mixed-frequency VARs with a parsimonious time-varying parameter structure
    Thomas Götz, Klemens Hauzenberger
  • Focusing on regions of interest in forecast evaluation
    Hajo Holzmann, Bernhard Klar
  • Probabilistic forecasting and comparative model assessment based on Markov chain Monte Carlo output
    Fabian Krüger, Sebastian Lerch, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Tilmann Gneiting
  • A severity function approach to scenario selection
    Frieder Mokinski
  • Probability forecasts of deflation for the Euro area and Japan: an evaluation using scoring rules for binary outcomes.
    Inske Pirschel, Christian Schumacher

Session 3

  • Dynamic semiparametric models for expected shortfall (and value-at-risk)
    Andrew J. Patton, Johanna F. Ziegel, Rui Chen
  • Back to the future: Backtesting systemic risk measures during historical bank runs
    Christian Brownlees, Ben Chabot, Eric Ghysels, Christopher Kurz

Session 4

  • Time-varying combinations of Bayesian dynamic models and equity momentum strategies
    Nalan Baştürk, Stefano Grassi, Lennart Hoogerheide, Herman K. van Dijk
  • Data revisions and real-time probabilistic forecasting of macroeconomic variables
    Michael P. Clements, Ana Beatriz Galvao

Session 5

  • How far can we forecast? Statistical tests of the predictive content
    Jörg Breitung, Malte Knüppel
  • Understanding the Sources of Macroeconomic Uncertainty
    Barbara Rossi, Tatevik Sekhposyan, Matthieu Soupre

Session 6

  • An empirical investigation of direct and iterated multistep approaches to producing conditional forecasts
    Michael W. McCracken, Joseph McGillicuddy
  • Censoring and fat tails on the monetary policy committee
    James Mitchell, Martin Weale

Poster Session 2

  • Time-varying uncertainty and exchange rate predictability
    Knut-Are Aastveit, Francesco Ravazzolo, Herman van Dijk
  • Forecasting with VARs with time-variation in the mean
    Marta Bańbura, Andries van Vlodrop
  • Improving model-based near-term GDP forecasts by subjective forecasts: a real-time exercise for the G7 countries
    Jos Jansen, Jasper de Winter
  • Optimal density forecast combinations
    Gergely Gánics
  • Nowcasting with large, international data sets: do sparse priors help?
    Philipp Hauber, Christan Schumacher
  • Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and linear pools of density forecasts
    Malte Knüppel, Fabian Krüger
  • Disaggregate inflation, asymmetry and stochastic heterogeneity
    Błażej Mazur
  • A UK financial conditions index using targeted data reduction: forecasting and structural identification
    George Kapetanios, Simon Price, Garry Young

Session 7

  • Modeling time-varying uncertainty of multiple-horizon forecast errors
    Todd E. Clark, Michael W. McCracken, Elmar Mertens
  • Bayesian inference for probabilistic surveys
    Roberto Casarin, Marco Del Negro, Francesco Ravazzolo