Revisiting and Improving Prediction Tools for Central Banks Deutsche Bundesbank – International Institute of Forecasters

Deutsche Bundesbank and International Institute of Forecasters are organizing a joint workshop on the 25th of February 2022, hosted by Deutsche Bundesbank.

Monetary policy decisions affect economic developments with, in many cases, a considerable lag. Therefore, central banks need to assess future economic developments before taking action. This task requires the use of prediction tools such as time series models or forecast surveys among economic agents. The dramatic course of the COVID-19 pandemic is motivating many central banks to now try to find out whether and how they should rebuild their prediction tools and how they can increase the frequency of forecast updates. Moreover, questions such as which forecast evaluation or which combination approach to choose might now also require new answers. Learning the new lessons quickly is essential for central banks, given the current and expected inflation spurts.

At this one-day workshop, co-hosted by the Deutsche Bundesbank and the International Institute of Forecasters, experts in these fields will present and discuss their insights.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in the presentations do not necessarily reflect the views of the Deutsche Bundesbank or the Eurosystem.